This summer marked the slowest housing market in 10 years. It was so slow, in fact, that the pace and volume of sales resembled what you’d typically see in the fall or winter—when frigid temperatures, school slogs, and looming holidays cause real estate to go dormant until the new year.

This summer wasn’t just bad for buyers. Everyone suffered, from sellers to builders and beyond, according to a study by Realtor.com economist Jake Krimmel, aptly titled “Cruel Summer: Why the US Housing Market Is Stuck.”

Still, since Labor Day is next week, it’s high time to turn the page and see what’s coming down the pike for fall. Spoiler alert: The forecast seems to be looking up.

Fall = best time to buy?

Autumn’s biggest bounty may arrive on September 16–17, when the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut interest rates. Currently, the odds of that happening hover at over 88%.

Rate cuts aside, the seasonal decline in buyers during cooler months means less competition and more desperate sellers. As a result, “fall and winter can be among the best times to buy, especially for investors,” says Krimmel. “With 25+% year-over-year inventory growth and price cuts on over one in five listings, we’re coming to the end of the most buyer-friendly summer since we began collecting data in 2016. I expect that trend to continue into the fall and winter.”

In particular, prices are falling fast in the South and West, so some investors may see this as an opportunity to buy low in growing markets (like Austin, TX; Raleigh, NC; and Charlotte, NC), which are likely to keep strengthening, adds Krimmel. Meanwhile, the Midwest and Northeast are likely to continue seeing rising prices.

“Summer was much slower for me as an investor,” admits Ralph DiBugnara at Home Qualified. “Higher interest rates combined with higher prices in my region [New York] have made it harder to find properties that are cash flow positive. Buying today really means anticipating a rate drop over the next 24 months and refinancing to create more of a positive return. That method can be effective once rates drop to mid-5s, and historically, if that happens, home values will go up.”

Another standoff that might ease this fall is the rift between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept.

“Seller sentiment appears to have shifted: We do a lot of direct-to-owner advertising for purchases, and we’ve seen a giant uptick in sellers looking to revisit offers that they previously declined,” says Ryan Dossey at SoldFast.com. “Similarly, we’ve had buyers put in over-asking offers. I think we’re going to have a ‘green Christmas,’ with sellers being more realistic and buyers looking to take advantage of anticipated lower rates.”

Here’s to hoping he’s right.

The Jackson Hole aftermath: What’s next? After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed may be ready to put interest rates on the chopping block at its upcoming September meeting, mortgage rates plummeted to year-to-date lows last Friday. Here’s more on what this means for housing, plus a podcast on data to watch for the rest of 2025.

Inflation is outpacing home prices. S&P Cotality’s latest Case-Shiller Index shows that US home prices rose 1.9% year over year, the slowest pace since the summer of 2023 and even slower than the growth of consumer inflation at 2.7%. Here’s why this event is being called a “decisive shift in the housing market.”

America’s most expensive zip code: 33109, otherwise known as Fisher Island in Miami Beach, FL, commands the highest median listing prices in the US at $11,925,000, according to Realtor.com. Check out the rest of the top 10 priciest zip codes here.

🫢 “Affordable housing” is no longer a bad word. A survey by Talker Research for Built found that although 23% associate “affordable housing” with poverty-level projects, 63% now view the term more favorably than many other types of multi-family properties, including townhomes (76%), apartments (70%), or mobile homes (64%). Read up more on what Americans think about affordable housing.

Brand-new homes are bargains. In August, 66% of builders offered incentives such as lower prices or mortgage rate buydowns, the highest share in five years, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Here’s more on builder discounts you can get now.

Is AI to blame for the US housing rut? These investors sure think so.

Real estate agents are getting younger. Here’s why.

“Can we have a sleepover?” More homebuyers are spending the night in a house before they make an offer. Here’s more about this new twist on try before you buy.

Love Island was this summer’s steamiest guilty pleasure, and if you’ve ever fantasized about living like those scheming singletons, there’s an Airbnb for you: The Palm Lake Ozark on Missouri’s Lake of the Ozarks was decorated to mimic this reality show’s chic, neon-lit aesthetic perfectly.

This is hardly the only short-term rental inspired by a popular show. Airbnbs have opened at former filming locations for series ranging from The White Lotus to Stranger Things (complete with VHS tapes stashed near a boxy TV). Curious to learn more about how these TV shows come to life as vacation rentals? We got the host of the Love Island–inspired house, Tiphanie Shy, to spill the tea.

What inspired this renovation? “I knew when we purchased the property in January 2023 that I wanted it to be over-the-top and ‘girly’ because I had my bachelorette party at the Lake of the Ozarks over 22 years ago, and there was no property that gave the aesthetic to match my hot-pink wedding colors at the time. My main goal was to provide a gorgeous place for girls’ trips. My daughter and I are huge Love Island fans, and I’m an even bigger fan of the Love Island villa’s decor. I think I’m more excited about how the villa is going to be designed each season than anything else! So, that’s what inspired the renovation’s theme. Love Island was popular a few years ago, but nothing like what it is now, so I have been diving headfirst into the brand as much as I can because so many seem to love it like we do.”

What challenges did you face bringing this place up to snuff? “There were a gazillion challenges! The house itself was in severe need of updating; it was a time warp back to the ’80s. But that gave me freedom to essentially make over every nook and cranny of the property. I knew going into it that it would be a labor of love. This house had sat on the market for a considerable amount of time because I don’t think anyone could see past the burgundy carpet and the unappealing design of the ’80s, but I did. The soaring ceilings and somewhat open layout had me, a perfect gathering spot for a group. We opened some walls, changed the ceiling, re-sided the entire house, changed the floors, completed the kitchen demo—you name it, we changed it. The even bigger challenge was that we did pretty much all of it ourselves! I have lots of Instagram stories showing the process, even down to sleeping on air mattresses because the property was gutted for quite a bit of time. All in all, it was a fun experience that I would do over in a heartbeat.”

How many rentals do you have, and how have bookings been for this new place? “I currently have four short-term rentals, three that my husband and I own and that I 100% designed and manage, all located at the Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri. Bookings for The Palm Lake Ozark have been solid from the start, with zero available weekends and semi-solid weekdays during the busy season. Since Love Island has become crazy popular this season, and my TikToks went viral, the listing has taken off even more with guests, [who are] requesting dates over a year in advance.”

Any other fond memories of hosting such a place? “When my guests book, I have them let me know, in short, why they’re visiting, and these messages are the best. From a group of ladies visiting to celebrate the memory of a friend who had passed away, or a family staying at the property because their sister moved to the area, but her place wasn’t big enough to host them all (so they could reunite), to book club trips, milestone birthday celebrations, and more. Truly, just thinking about some of them brings a tear to my eye, and I am not an emotional person. I’m glad I can provide the venue for those precious memories to be made. It definitely makes the hard work worth it.”

Don’t touch that dial: Check out other Airbnbs inspired by popular TV shows here.

The term “mortgage spread” has been slathered all over the news like mayo on a hoagie, but you might not understand what it means. In a nutshell, it’s the difference between mortgage interest rates and the benchmark interest rate, typically the 10-year US Treasury yield. This gap has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, according to Redfin, with the spread coming in at 2.26 percentage points as of August 22, down from about 2.5 at the start of summer and 2.68 a year earlier.

Why does this matter? Because when mortgage spreads narrow, it means that lenders are offering lower rates, regardless of whether or not the Fed decides to cut them. Case in point: Back in 2021, the mortgage spread fell to around 1.5 percentage points when mortgage rates sank to record lows.

“Think of the mortgage spread like a restaurant meal,” explains Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. “The treasury yield is the cost of raw ingredients, the mortgage rate is the price of the meal on the table, and the spread is the restaurant’s markup, which covers the cost of the chef, rent on the restaurant, profit margin, etc. Regardless of the cost of raw ingredients, if the restaurant has a lower markup, that lowers the customer’s bill. Similarly, regardless of the Fed’s actions, a lower mortgage spread helps lower mortgage rates.”

Here’s more on yummy mortgage spreads and why they matter.