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ā˜• šŸ  Price cuts hit a record
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The Playbook // Morning Brew // Update
Plus, a beach home battle…

Good afternoon. Have a house with a pool, or wish you did for a Memorial Day Weekend dip? The ā€œpool premiumā€ tacks on an extra 54% to the typical home price, inflating the total to $599,000, according to Realtor.com.

But price cuts are also rampant in real estate these days, even for the rich and famous. Jim Carrey has slashed the price of his longtime Los Angeles home by 60%, amounting to a $10 million discount (pool included).

This latest edition of The Playbook points out where deals are popping up faster than hot dogs at a cookout. Share this newsletter with any bargain-hunting home shoppers you know—or if that’s you, sign up here for news and advice that’ll keep you swimming in real estate wisdom all summer.

—Judy Dutton

WEEKLY HOUSING TRENDS

Average weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage data from Freddie Mac as of 5/22/2025; median housing data from Realtor.com as of 5/17/2025 and 5/1/2025 (the most recent available).

  • Mortgage rates rose to 6.86% this week from 6.81% last week for a 30-year fixed-rate home loan, according to Freddie Mac. That’s bad, but it’s still lower than it was at this time last year, when rates were at 6.94%.
  • Listing prices dropped by 1% year over year after nine weeks of remaining flat or rising. Currently, the nationwide median hovers at $431,250.
  • The number of homes for sale ballooned by 29.7% year over year, marking 80 straight weeks of expanding options and the most homes on the market since December 2019.
  • Homes lingered on the market six days longer than this week last year, giving buyers around 50 days to shop around. That’s much longer than they had four years ago during the pandemic, when homes were snatched off the market in a mere 33 days.

THE BIG STORY

home for sale price reduced

Credit: iStock/Getty Images Plus

Home shoppers drowning in steep housing costs may finally get some relief: Prices are crash-landing back to Earth.

Nearly one in four listings on Zillow got a price cut in April—a record for this time of year in data going back to 2018.

Among the 50 largest metro areas, Phoenix had the highest share of price reductions at 37.2%, and both Florida and Texas have two cities in the top 10.

  • Phoenix, AZ: 37.2%
  • Tampa, FL: 34.7%
  • Denver, CO: 34.5%
  • Raleigh, NC: 33.8%
  • Jacksonville, FL: 32.3%
  • Nashville, TN: 31.9%
  • Dallas, TX: 31.9%
  • Salt Lake City, UT: 31.4%
  • San Antonio, TX: 29.6%
  • Orlando, FL: 29.4%

Even brand-new homes are getting dumped in the discount bin. More than one-third of builders trimmed their asking prices in May, up from 29% in April; it’s the highest number since December 2023, according to a survey by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

What price cuts mean for investors

This Red Wedding of price cuts indicates that the balance of power is shifting from sellers to buyers—and this can spell opportunity, particularly for investors.

ā€œWith peak policy uncertainty somewhat behind us and mortgage rates still below year-ago levels, investors are in a better position than they have been in a while,ā€ says Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy. Plus, a pullback in residential construction should help stabilize rents. ā€œThat means the price-to-rent ratio is shrinking and more rental properties might become more attractive investments.ā€

ā€œPrice reductions at this scale tell me that we’re moving into a market where buyers and investors can regain some negotiating power,ā€ agrees Mike Wall, founder of EZsellhomebuyers.com. And although the reduced price might already seem like a bargain, ā€œI absolutely treat price cuts as invitations to negotiate further,ā€ he says. ā€œA reduced list price doesn’t mean it’s at the bottom; in fact, it often means the seller is just starting to get realistic.ā€

One of Wall’s recent acquisitions, a brick ranch outside of Dayton, OH, had already dropped its price by $15K. ā€œI offered another $10K below that,ā€ he says. ā€œThe seller took it because they were just ready to be done, and I was bringing cash, speed, and certainty to the table. For investors, this is the time to get creative. Price cuts can open the door for seller financing, subject-to deals, and other structures that weren’t on the table 18 months ago.ā€

ā€œSmart buyers should absolutely target price-reduced properties now,ā€ says Los Angeles real estate agent Wesley Kang. ā€œI tell investors to watch for specific patterns. Like when a seller drops the price three times in six weeks, they’ll usually accept 15% below their last cut. Properties sitting 45 to 60 days after their last cut often have sellers ready to negotiate seriously. Right now, the sweet spot for offers sits around 12% below recent reductions on luxury properties and 8% on mid-range homes.ā€

What price cuts mean for sellers

If you’re hoping to sell a home this summer, it won’t be the cakewalk it used to be.

ā€œMany sellers were hoping that the market would take off this spring. Now, the numbers show that it is going to stay slow,ā€ says Andrew Fortune at Great Colorado Homes. ā€œOver half of our listings have been reduced, with more about to be reduced. We are now in a buyer’s market, and sellers are slowly coming to terms with that.ā€

Selling now involves monitoring the market closely. If you hear crickets, it’s best to reduce your price sooner rather than later.

ā€œWaiting too long to cut can cost you more in the long run,ā€ warns Wall. ā€œI recently listed a fully remodeled brick ranch in Springfield [OH] for $219,900. After a few weeks and no offers, we dropped the price and included $6K in closing costs to keep the deal alive.ā€

Even after you’ve slashed your price, brace for buyers to smell your desperation.

ā€œSellers aren’t quite as offended by a lowball offer as they were a couple years ago,ā€ Fortune says. ā€œSellers will respond with the level of desperation they are currently experiencing, which is growing monthly.ā€

Presented by BiggerPockets

QUICK HITS

Housing graphic with arrows

​​ The happiest place in the country. U.S. News & World Report released its much-anticipated best places to live rankings for 2025–26, crowning little ol’ Johns Creek, GA, as this year’s surprise winner. About 25 miles from Atlanta, Johns Creek was deemed to have a high ā€œvalue of livingā€ compared to similarly sized cities, where residents typically earn about $163,653 (about twice the national average) and pay $528,234 for a house (about $150,000 more than usual). We’re not saying it all boils down to money, but being able to pay the bills certainly helps.

Home Depot will eat the tariffs. After President Trump ordered Walmart to ā€œeat the tariffsā€ rather than passing along those costs to customers, Home Depot heard that message loud and clear. The home improvement chain announced that it does not plan to raise prices due to Trump’s levies, much to the relief of renovators everywhere. Less than half its wares are produced outside the States, and within a year, the company aims to keep imports from any country to 10% or less. Eat that, Walmart.

Americans are moving back to big cities. People who fled urban areas during the pandemic have returned. Census data shows that 68 of the country’s 72 largest cities grew in their latest annual tally—the biggest surge in nearly a quarter century. New York City, Houston, and Los Angeles attracted the most new residents.

Luxury homes are a weirdly hot investment. In an uncertain economic time when regular folks are cutting back on splurges, the ultra-wealthy are snapping up pricy real estate. The Wall Street Journal found that from February 1 to May 1, the number of mansions sold for $10 million and up has surged—particularly in Palm Beach, FL, (by 50%), Miami (48.5%), Aspen, CO (43.75%), Los Angeles (29%), and Manhattan (21%). As luxury real estate agent Dana Koch told WSJ, ā€œIt’s just a safe place to put your money to ride out this wave and see what transpires.ā€

ā€œFun zonesā€ are the hot home upgrade. A Houzz survey of summer renovation trends shows that people plan to level up their entertainment game. Searches on the site for putting greens are up 70%. The number of searches for dedicated rooms for billiards, video games, and even Legos are up 39%, 34%, and 54% respectively. And since all this recreation builds up a thirst, interest in beverage bars is up 39%, with dedicated whiskey bar searches up 82%. Cheers!

The Pope’s home is for sale. Pope Leo XIV spent his childhood in a humble three-bedroom brick house in the Chicago suburb of Dolton. Although the property had been lingering on the market for $199,000, Leo’s election sparked a sudden frenzy of offers. The house will now be sold to the highest bidder in June by the same company who’d auctioned off President Trump’s childhood home in Queens for $2.14 million, more than double comparable properties. A ā€œpope premiumā€ will surely apply to this new sale, too.

Looking for regional housing market analysis? ResiClub’s newsletter delivers expert housing data, insights, and sharp analysis on everything from local home prices to inventory trends—so you can make smarter moves. Sign up for free.

Together With BiggerPockets

REAL TALK

private island owners

Members of Adamicos International

Mike Cossette is the proud owner of a one-acre island off the Gulf Coast of Florida, which he bought five years ago with two friends (entrepreneur Adam Miller and public relations specialist Dominic Forth) by pitching in around $20,000. They started out using the island for family camping and fishing trips, but as word of their island grew and led to media appearances, it became clear that this purchase might pay off in other ways. Today, the island is worth $200,000 to $400,000, with discussions underway with a university to turn it into a research base. Here’s how Mike and his buddies ended up with this dreamy yet challenging out-of-the-box investment.

How did you end up buying a private island? ā€œIt started as a random conversation with a buddy who crashed at my Airbnb during Covid. I mentioned the idea of renting raw land to campers for proof of concept, then borrowing against that income to develop. The next morning, he said, ā€˜Let’s buy an island.’ He had one picked out. That weekend, he went out to the island, and within a week, we were under contract. It was just weird enough, he asked me to come in as a partner, since banks wouldn’t finance any of it, and I knew I’d regret not doing it more than doing it. So I agreed.ā€

Please tell me more! ā€œIt’s off the Gulf Coast of Florida near Crystal River. About 1.2 acres total, with one acre above water, and technically two islands connected by mangroves. It’s wild, overgrown, and has zero infrastructure, which is part of the charm and the challenge. I love the raw nature and uniqueness … I don’t love the red tape and hurricane risk.ā€

What do you hope or plan to do with it? ā€œThe original idea was to rent it to off-grid campers on Hipcamp.com, show some income, then finance development. We still plan to do something along those lines—maybe glamping, events, probably nothing for a while since we have small kids and our own businesses. Every plan hit a permitting wall, so we’re leaning into creative, light-footprint ideas and patience.ā€

What are the main challenges of owning an island? ā€œEverything’s harder than you might think. You’re dealing with environmental agencies, wetlands, protected species, no utilities, barge access, tide levels, wind patterns, and then throw in hurricanes. Building anything permanent is a logistical and regulatory maze. We’ve talked about underground containers or collapsible structures to survive storms. It’s basically the opposite of buying a city lot and pulling a permit.ā€

Can you ballpark how many private islands exist in the US, and how many are currently available to purchase? ā€œThere are hundreds of private islands in the US; at any given time, there are 100–200 privately owned islands listed for sale across the country. I know there are clusters off Florida’s Gulf Coast where ours is and others off the Eastern seaboard, the Great Lakes, and even the ā€˜third coast’ of Texas. Many are in rivers or lakes, not just oceans.ā€

What was your background in real estate investing before buying this island? ā€œI’ve been in real estate for 20+ years as a broker/owner of a RE/MAX office in Austin [TX]. I’ve done residential flips, STRs, LTRs, built an Airbnb duplex, own a 12-unit apartment complex that I self-manage, and I’ve even used seller financing and subject-to creative financing to scale. I’ve always been about pairing cash flow with creativity, but the island’s probably the most eccentric play and one of the more outside-the-box things I’ve done.ā€

Got any advice for investors or regular folks who might want to try buying a private island? ā€œUnless you love weird problems or want to use the land for your own enjoyment purposes, I wouldn’t do it if you want to try and develop anything. If it’s already been developed or there’s infrastructure on there, it’s going to be a lot more expensive. At least you can avoid all the red tape and agency interference. But definitely have a strategy, even a loose one, don’t overpay for fantasy, and talk to locals before you close. What surprised me most was how little most people actually do with their islands. You’ve got to get scrappy and creative if you want to monetize it.ā€

Craving more sandy eye candy? Click here to see more photos of Mike’s dreamy island paradise.

LINGO

House graphic

Prison vibes aside, this real estate term refers to a situation where homeowners have ā€œlocked inā€ a low interest rate on their home loan, making them less likely to put their house on the market when rates are much higher now. Currently, nearly half of mortgage holders are hanging onto rates below 4%. Why would anyone give that up, ever?

But the lock-in effect has been easing. Let’s face it: No matter how great your rate is, it’s not always possible to stay put forever. Families grow. New jobs require relocation. Plus, homeowners who’d been hunkering down with wild hopes that rates might nosedive again before they sell are waking up and accepting that this dream scenario probably won’t happen anytime soon. Although no one knows for sure where mortgage rates will go next, many predict they will remain above 6% for the rest of this year.

As long as mortgage rates don’t fly too high, the lock-in effect should continue loosening up. This, in turn, should help free up home sellers from properties they’ve been dying to ditch and pass on to homebuyers and investors hungry for more options.

QUIZ

This week’s a battle of the beach houses! Both of these homes for sale offer easy access to surf and sand, but one costs more than the other. Test your real estate savvy by picking which property is pricier, then find out the answer below.

Listing #1: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1,177 square feet in Miami.

Perched high in the sky, unit 1901 is part of 72 Park, a recently completed luxury building that’s LEED Gold certified, which means it earns high marks for its energy efficiency and environmentally conscious design. You’ll be just blocks from the beach or a swift elevator ride to a 150-foot swimming pool with cabanas and concierge service.

Florida condo for saleLefferts

Listing #2: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1,500 square feet on a .46-acre lot in Topanga, CA.

This recently remodeled sanctuary is not only minutes from the beach, but also surrounded by hiking trails in a picturesque neighborhood in the Santa Monica Mountains in western Los Angeles.

California home for saleMax Sock/Envision Media/Belwood Investments

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ANSWER

Although Listing #2 offers up a whole house with plenty of privacy, hiking, and beach access for $1.4 million, the Florida condo in Listing #1 is more expensive, with prices for three-bedroom units starting at $1.8 million. However, junior one-bedrooms at 72 Park start at just $889,000–$970,000. So if you don’t need much space, you can get away with paying much less for access to the same beautiful beach and pristine pool.

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