Weekly Housing Trends

The big story

Francis Scialabba

Homebuyers have one shred of hope on their side right now: timing.

According to Realtor.com, September 27 to October 3 is the best week nationwide to buy a home, based on listing data. “That window has consistently landed in early fall, and this year it arrives a bit earlier than the past couple of years, as inventory and price reductions both peaked earlier,” says economist Hannah Jones.

Here’s what this window stacks in your favor:

• 3.5% lower prices compared to the seasonal peak, which can add up to roughly $14,000 in savings on the typical $416,000 house.
• 13.3% more listings than average—basically a buffet of options and less reason to settle.
• 14.4% fewer buyers than usual, leaving more elbow room and less competition at open houses.
• 64 days before homes typically go under contract—13 more days than during peak season, giving buyers actual time to think, breathe, and consider their next move.

“Home shoppers heading into fall will find an opportunity that has been hard to come by in recent years: more choices and less urgency,” explains Jones.

A small break in an otherwise brutal year

Let’s face it: Homebuyers need all the help they can get right now. Mortgage rates crossed the dreaded 7% threshold for the first time in over a year—and could climb even higher now that the Fed decided to hike rates this week for the first time in over three years.

Meanwhile, home prices have also remained stubbornly high, creating a painful combo that’s convinced many buyers to throw in the towel. But this also means that the few who stick with it have more leverage. While the last week of September offers the best mix of choice and value, the weeks that follow in October may offer fewer homes but steeper discounts as sellers get desperate to strike a deal before the holidays. As Jones explains, “Shopping earlier in the fall may provide the broadest selection of fresh listings, while waiting later in the season may bring additional price flexibility.”

Location matters, too. Although September 27 kicks off the best week nationwide (and in 14 of the top 50 largest US metros), this optimal window shifts based on where you’re shopping. In New York City, the best week to buy (September 6 to 12) arrives the earliest and has already passed. Miami is the latest, with peak conditions arriving November 29 to December 5.

Check out the best time to buy near you.

      

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What's up this week

Realty check

Clockwise from top left: Reid Smith Architects; AMF Construction; Lavish.

🍁 Minimalism is officially dead: That’s according to 50 home designers who shared which decor trends they’re adopting and ditching this fall.

🤑 81% of US housing markets are overvalued. See the 10 biggest offenders, and just how much buyers overpay.

🏘️ This listing sat on the market for months—but adding these two words attracted two offers in one day.

🛍️ Commercial real estate’s top performer with 13% annual growth is a place you practically lived in as a teenager.

✈️ This European city has become much more than an escape to Americans: Many are calling it home.

🗑️ $1,000+ “junk fees” are routinely hiding in real estate contracts, and even agents call them “greedy.” Here’s how to spot them so you can call BS.

💥 America’s biggest boomtown just posted 3.4% more homes, 11.3% more business applications, and 3.1% more new residents this year alone. Find out why, straight from an analyst who actually lives there.

🌳 Want to grow your home’s value? Make sure your yard has one of these eight trees.

🧳 This travel writer has toured all 50 states but would live only in these three.

🤯 On the outside, this San Antonio suburban house looks painfully normal. Inside, it’s pure Willy Wonka.

You asked, we answered

Q: How could the Fed rate hike impact mortgage rates?

Win McNamee / Staff / Getty Images

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this Wednesday to a range of 3.75%–4%: the first hike in over three years. Many worry this will push already high mortgage rates even higher, but that’s actually not guaranteed. Although Fed rates and mortgage rates tend to move in the same general direction, they’re sloppy dance partners who don’t always follow the same lead. Just look at last year.

“In 2025, when the Fed was cutting rates, mortgage rates went up,” points out Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage. And in 2017, when the Fed raised rates three times, mortgage rates hit their low for the year in September after two of those increases. “So, who’s to say if the Fed raises rates in 2026 that mortgage rates can’t come down?”

Another reason mortgage rates might not budge much: Many lenders have already adjusted to anticipate the Fed’s move before it became official. As of last Friday’s latest inflation readings, “We priced in the Fed’s rate hike,” says Mona Wong at CrossCountry Mortgage in Newton, MA, and host of the podcast Homebuying Uncensored.

So what now? Whatever happens with rates, Wong thinks that waiting until they subside isn’t worth it, and offers up her own story as proof. “In 2001, I bought a condo with a mortgage rate of 9.75%,” she says. “Had I waited and bought two years later, my rate would have been lower, but the house would have cost more.”

Turns out Wong’s experience isn’t a fluke. In a nationwide analysis by AD Mortgage, Does the Perfect Time to Buy Exist?, buying in 2013 (when rates were 3.98%) financially outperformed waiting until 2015 (when rates dropped to 3.85%) 84% of the time. The reason: “Mortgage rates are only one part of the affordability equation,” the study explains. “Changes in home prices, savings growth, and local market conditions often played an equally important role.”

In other words, don’t let rate obsession blind you to all the other variables on your way to the closing table.

Got a question about real estate? Ask it here, and we’ll answer it in a future issue.

Real talk

Bill Lewis/Toronado

When San Francisco’s famous craft beer bar Toronado was listed for $1,799,000 in 2025, no one expected its new owner to be a longtime regular. Here’s how Bill Lewis and his brother-in-law ended up in charge of their very own Cheers, and what they’ve learned so far.

Q: What made you decide to buy this bar? “Toronado was the first place I’d ever had a Belgian beer back when I’d never even heard what that was. It’s not a dive or upscale, but it has a lot of character. Stickers and beer signs cover the walls. There’s always punk rock or metal playing on the jukebox. It’s very San Francisco weird and very analog; no one’s sitting on their phones, people talk to each other. At the time, I was CFO of a startup that was getting acquired and wouldn’t keep me around, so I was transitioning and had time to spend on this.”

Q: How was your offer received? “I wasn’t the richest offer; I was third in line. The first buyer got a lot of bad press with plans to launch a YouTube channel and a crypto coin called Toronado Cash. It was pretty antithetical to the culture of this place. The community backlash was strong: Regulars said, ‘If this guy buys it, none of us are coming back.’ So I just kept reinforcing to the agent that I was a longtime fan of this place. A year later, I was under contract.”

Q: What was the steepest learning curve in running a bar? “We had a wild ride on our way to the finish line because the manager walked out before the deal closed. I was terrified. Luckily, the owner gave me an accelerated, in-person crash course to bring me up to speed. And aside from the manager, the rest of the staff stayed and were a massive help.”

Q: Two months in, is the bar profitable? “I’m not sure yet. I think it has to be since it’s been here for 39 years, but I won’t know until the bookkeeper gets the numbers set up. But to me, the bar is a passion project. The real investment is the real estate. I don’t know if I would have bought the business without the building, or the building without the business. This way, I not only control my own lease, but I also have downside protection: Let’s say I’m the worst bar owner in the history of humankind and all the customers leave. I still have a building in San Francisco with strong appreciation potential, since we’re entitled to build up three stories.”

Q: Is owning this bar all you thought it would be? “The first thing all bar owners say is that buying a bar is a terrible idea. But once you get that out of the way, there are so many good things. I can’t tell you how many people met their spouse here or take their first dates here. I get why they do: It’s a litmus test, seeing if they can hang at Toronado. You learn a lot.”

      

Housing market of the week

James Harris/Harris & Partners

James Harris, founder of real estate firm Harris & Partners and the agent platform Breezy, got his first big break in Los Angeles in a very old-school way: by buying his first house. Here’s how that kicked off a career in luxury real estate, a starring role in Million Dollar Listing Los Angeles, and why buying in the City of Angels isn’t as scary as you think.

Average home price: $929,572 (down 0.4% YoY, per Zillow)
Homes that sell over list price: 39.5%
Homes that sell under list price: 49.8%
Average rent: $2,650/month (down YoY)

How he got started: In 2010, Harris and his wife bought a single-story home in Studio City for $675,000. Although he’d facilitated plenty of real estate deals, buying himself “felt like an enormous step,” he admits. Even with an FHA loan requiring just 3.5% down, “That felt like an unbelievable amount of money. I was terrified!” The house was also far from perfect. “We didn’t buy our dream house; we bought the house we could afford and improved it,” Harris says, adding that they later sold it for $1.1 million. “That equity helped us buy our next home, and completely changed our trajectory.” Eventually, casting directors called his brokerage asking for an interview. “We genuinely thought the whole thing was a prank,” he admits. “Turns out it was very real, and we somehow ended up on the Million Dollar Listing franchise.”

His market’s pros: Sun, sand, sightings of A-list celebs grabbing a latte—there’s a lot to love about L.A. “Most importantly, there’s a limited amount of really great real estate,” Harris explains. “What’s interesting right now is that it’s a very different market from a few years ago. There’s less competition; buyers have more leverage. I think difficult markets create some of the best buying opportunities because you’re not competing against 15 other people who are all willing to pay whatever it takes.”

The cons: High housing costs are just one headache, along with runaway insurance premiums and painfully slow permitting and construction. Plus, “Two houses can look almost identical on paper and be worth completely different numbers because of the view, school district, or even which side of the street they’re on,” Harris warns. “Local knowledge matters more today than it has in a long time. When the market is flying, and everything is going up, you can make a mistake, and sometimes the market saves you. Today, it won’t. You have to buy well.”

His advice: “I’m a huge believer in buying something where you can create value,” Harris says. “Maybe it needs renovating, or there’s an opportunity to add square footage.” He’s helping buyers ponder all the possibilities with UnderBuilt, a platform where homeowners and other professionals can plug in an address and learn what can be built in terms of additions, ADUs, height limits, setbacks, and more.

Got a home or housing market you want to highlight in The Playbook? Tell us more about it here, and we’ll consider featuring it in an upcoming issue.