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☕ 🏠 A more affordable 2026
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Plus, next year’s top markets


Good afternoon. Odds are you’re shopping for stocking stuffers rather than homes right now—but if you want a snapshot of what’s coming, we’ve got a slew of real estate predictions for the new year. Plus: President Trump’s childhood home just got a yuuuge makeover. Check out the photos below for the ultimate holiday party icebreaker.

—Judy Dutton

WEEKLY HOUSING TRENDS

Sources: Freddie Mac, Realtor.com, Zillow, Thumbtack

  • Mortgage rates rose to 6.22% this week from 6.19% last week for a 30-year fixed-rate home loan, according to Freddie Mac. At this time last year, rates were at 6.60%.
  • Listing prices fell 0.4% year over year to a median of $415,000 in November, down 2.2% from October, according to Realtor.com.
  • Housing costs jumped to $15,979 annually for taxes, insurance, and maintenance, according to analysis by Zillow and Thumbtack.
  • Rents slipped 1.7% annually to a median of $1,696 in October, down $9 from September, according to Realtor.com. This marks not only the third month straight of seasonal softening, but also the 27th consecutive year-over-year decline since rents peaked back in August 2022.

THE BIG STORY

Housing affordability forecast

Realtor.com

“Baby, it’s cold outside” nails 2025’s real estate vibes, when steep home prices and mortgage rates froze the market solid. But what about next year? A flurry of housing forecasts all claim to have a crystal ball into what’s ahead—and because we think that they all have something to offer, we’ve rolled them into a turducken-style summary that satisfies everything you’ve been wondering about and hoping for in 2026.

Mortgage rates: Rates are predicted to drift downward next year, with the 30-year fixed loan averaging around 6.3%, according to both Redfin and Realtor.com. However, Zillow predicts this number won’t fall below 6%.

Home prices: Nationally, prices are expected to inch up 1%–4%. But when combined with lower mortgage rates, monthly housing payments are expected to shrink by 1.3%—the first annual drop since 2020, per Realtor.com. And once you factor in rising incomes and easing inflation, the typical housing payment could finally slip back into “affordable” territory (below the “30% of your gross monthly income” threshold) for the first time since 2022.

Home sales: Although listings sat on the market in 2025, lower housing costs could entice more buyers to make offers next year. Sales of existing homes are expected to soar 14% in 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Rent: Housing economists are split on this: Redfin predicts rents will rise 2%–3% due to constrained apartment construction, while Realtor.com forecasts a modest 1% decline, especially in the South and West. Meanwhile, Zillow anticipates that, although apartment rents will become more affordable, rents for single-family homes will climb by 2.3%.

Bottom line: The new year rings in a market that’s shaping up to be more affordable and more active. To learn more, check out the full forecasts from Zillow, Realtor.com, Redfin, and the NAR.

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WHAT’S UP THIS WEEK

real estate investor share

Redfin

Selling at a loss? You’ve got company. Investors are having difficulty offloading property for a profit. Redfin found that although the typical real estate investor earned $182,688 on a sale, about 8% of homes in Q3 sold for less than their purchase price, the highest level in over two years. Find out where investors are buying—and bailing.

The top housing markets are on the move. Realtor.com’s latest rankings show a major reshuffle ahead. In 2025, the strongest markets were mainly in the South and West; in 2026, the spotlight moves to the Northeast and Midwest. Leading the pack: Hartford, CT; Rochester, NY; and Worcester, MA. See the whole list here.

Will slow-but-steady REITs win in 2026? Although everyone was chasing tech investments in 2025, next year’s runaway success may be REITs. Here’s why they’re poised to outperform.

City vs. suburb: Where should cheapskates live? Although many assume residing in the burbs saves money, GOBankingRates found 15 metros with a lower cost of living than their surrounding areas. You’ll never guess where they are.

Can you spot a genuine antique? Test your skills by sizing up these photos.

Next year’s “it color”: Not sure which paint hue to pick for your house? Consider Pantone’s top color for 2026: It’s called Cloud Dancer, and it’s not really a color (at least in the traditional sense).

Where vacation homes will fill up: Airbnb says 65% of its top-searched cities and travel dates for 2026 align directly with major “event tourism” draws like Coachella, the Winter Olympics, and the FIFA World Cup. Searches for places “near a national park” also jumped 35% in the US, thanks to the nation’s 250th anniversary and big birthdays for iconic parks including the Great Smoky Mountains, Grand Teton, and Shenandoah (photo below). Check out other short-term rental predictions.

airbnbCourtesy Airbnb Community

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REAL TALK

trump childhood home

Home photos by Allyson Lubow for Brown Harris Stevens; President Trump photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Contributor/Getty Images.

The house Donald Trump lived in until age 4 is back on the market after some inglorious ups and downs. Built by Trump’s father, the Tudor in the Jamaica Estates neighborhood of Queens, NY, served a brief stint as an $800-per-night Airbnb (with a cardboard cutout of POTUS), then devolved into a vacant hovel for feral cats. But things are looking up: In March, developer Tommy Lin purchased the rundown property for $835,000, undertook a gut renovation, and listed it for $2.3 million. We got listing agent Jevon Gratineau of Brown Harris Stevens to spill details.

Q: How did you end up as the listing agent? “I’ve worked with the developer on other projects, so I already had a foot in the door. This is our brainchild, a collaboration I was involved in from the start back in March.”

Q: What was this property like when you first saw it? “The house was in disrepair. Cats all over the place, lawn overgrown, uninhabitable.”

Q: What did you decide to do with the place? “With an opportunity like this, you do it right or not at all. The neighborhood had supply, but nothing ‘wow.’ We wanted to do wow, so we laid out a plan: Make the inside modern, updated, but not over the top. The chandeliers were too dated, so those went.”

Q: Did you preserve any original details as a nod to Trump’s time there? “We kept the outside classic Tudor style. We also kept the original wood-burning fireplace, and saved another original wood-burning oven from the sunroom.”

Q: What’s been the response from buyers? “The first thing they say is, ‘President Trump lived here, huh?’ Then they get over it and start asking how it fits their family. We’ve had steady traffic and hope to be under contract soon.”

Q: Do you think the house will sell for a premium because the president lived here? “I don’t know. Michael Jordan’s house sat for years, so it’s hard to say. We just focused on giving buyers more than they’d get elsewhere in the neighborhood.”

Click here to see more photos of this makeover.

YOU ASKED, WE ANSWER

fed rate cuts and mortgage rates

Chart: Lance Lambert, ResiClub, created in DataWrapper. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Freddie Mac.

The Federal Reserve announced its third rate cut of the year this week, lowering the benchmark borrowing rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. This has many wondering hoping praying that mortgage rates will finally follow. But most experts say there’s no guarantee.

“The Fed cutting [rates] doesn’t mean mortgage rates are going to come down,” says Melissa Cohn, a regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage and a 43-year mortgage industry veteran. For one, markets had already anticipated the cut and priced it in, which explains why, during the last two cuts in September and October, mortgage rates dipped before the Fed’s announcements and then ticked up slightly afterward.

Also worth paying attention to are Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. His tone “will drive rates one way or the other,” says Cohn. Although Powell said Wednesday that “activity in the housing sector remains weak,” the Fed’s top priorities remain the dual mandates of labor and inflation. Lagging data from the government shutdown continues to keep forecasts murky, however; as of now, just one additional Fed rate cut seems in the cards next year.

Bottom line: Don’t wait for a Fed rate cut to rescue you with lower rates, especially when there are plenty of ways to snag a lower rate on your own.

Got a question about real estate? Share it here, and we’ll answer it in a future issue.

QUIZ

This week’s showdown is between properties where trees are the main selling point. But do Christmas trees or those growing walnuts command a higher premium? Try to guess which parcel costs more, then find out the correct answer below.

Listing #1: 40-acre Christmas tree farm in Reno, NV

Silver Valley Farm boasts 15 acres of Colorado Spruces, sure to attract a steady stream of yuletide revelers eager to chop down their own evergreen. And that’s not the only holiday fun that’s been had here; in the past, the farm has also flourished as a Halloween pumpkin patch. Although there’s no house on the property, one can be built since the area’s zoned for residential and agriculture, or you can try converting its 6,000-square-foot shop building into your own barndominium.

christmas tree farm for saleCalifornia Outdoor Properties

Listing #2: 236.67-acre walnut orchard in Grimes, CA

Just an hour north of Sacramento, Grand Island Orchard features 180 acres of walnut trees, as well as a 2,461-square-foot main house with a pool and two additional homes used as an office and storage.

walnut tree orchardCalifornia Outdoor Properties

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ANSWER

Listing #1 costs $1,495,000. But Listing #2 costs more at $4,200,000. Blame it on the extra acreage and houses
 or the simple fact that Christmas trees are a tough business where your product is constantly facing the hatchet. Walnut trees, on the other hand, can live for over a century and generate about $4,000 per acre per year. We guess it depends on your priorities: drumming up profits or spreading holiday cheer?

         
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